Tuesday, April 17, 2012
This excellent analysis had ignored two issues; which are critical in structuring the Turkish profile.. Islamization and Turkishism..
The Ottoman Empire had been structured as a religious Islamic Caliphate; which had gained the support of most Muslim nations.. The Turkishism was a critical factor in shaping both leadership and advocacy Turkey had exercised among all Turks from Uyghur of Western China to Bosnians of Balkan..
Muslims are currently in critical search for a political model and leadership; which had made many eyes desperately twist towards Ankara and Erdogan.. Yes; nothing was there to offer, but notably how such a declined situation had irritated the Turkish Islamists.. Therefore; the responses to Syrian crisis was in a way a meeting or defusing point..
Despite how the Turks as nations are fractured and scattered in various directions, but their enigmatic search for stability and prosperity will inevitably stretch their eyes towards the historical big brother.. This will echo once Turkey accepts the headaches and risks involved with changing the title of their quest from Great to Greater..!
April 17, 2012
By George Friedman
Turkey is re-emerging as a significant regional power. In some sense, it is in the process of returning to its position prior to World War I when it was the seat of the Ottoman Empire. But while the Ottoman parallel has superficial value in understanding the situation, it fails to take into account changes in how the global system and the region work. Therefore, to understand Turkish strategy, we need to understand the circumstances it finds itself in today.
The end of World War I brought with it the end of the Ottoman Empire and the contraction of Turkish sovereignty to Asia Minor and a strip of land on the European side of the Bosporus. That contraction relieved Turkey of the overextended position it had tried to maintain as an empire stretching from the Arabian Peninsula to the Balkans. In a practical sense, defeat solved the problem of Turkey's strategic interests having come to outstrip its power. After World War I, Turkey realigned its interests to its power. Though the country was much smaller, it was also much less vulnerable than the Ottoman Empire had been.
Read more: Turkey's Strategy