One of the repeated and inevitable mistakes in today’s politics; is the referral to academic professors as advisors on setting strategies and roadmaps. It is a mistake, as people and communities are not constant matters with sustainable probabilities and predictable reactions. Human nature would drive a community to diverse its course of actions due to uncontrolled circumstances, including rumors and gossips. These facts, and others came bright to my mind when watching a JSC interview with Professor Mahmood Mamdani of Columbia University, as a world leading expert of African Studies, debating on backgrounds, developments and predictions of future of Darfur, Southern Sudan, and International Theater.. I have no doubt on his vast experience and knowledge about structures of African geopolitics and socio cultural compositions. Certainly, he advises authorities, think tanks and development institutions, as such academic credentials are the most reachable to get prepared for any actions. Yet, as always; there is blank black holes, which make most of this intelligent analysis and predication unreal, and rarely matching the forthcoming people’s actions or on-ground activities. No wonder, the common say on academic ivory chairs or watch towers..!!
I went thru his last book; Saviors and Survivors.. which is a very nice work, advocating the conspiracy behind Save Darfur Coalition, and explaining how historical the fights between various tribes over water and land, not on racial facts. Yet, his book, alike many other writers; is not addressed to Sudanese readers, but those Westerners who are thousands of miles away from battle zone or drought regions. Discussions on their strategies, not ours.. on their interests, not ours..!!
Nevertheless, the deliberate mindset of Al-Jazeerah (JSC) to only host controversial guests, who should have a definite criteria of expressing against the general consensus of any issue; is long questioned, and rather discomfortable to me on a personal level. This is well known to any observer who knows the history of lunching its service, and the agreed challenges for funding and promoting certain political visions. The aim is never to promote the truth, but the channel itself.. Then its commercial viability works..!!Prof M. had summarized the situation in Sudan as follows in Italian Bold, followed by my comments:
1. Darfur victims and causalities are exaggerated in numbers for political purpose, against WHO data..
Darfur is not only count of displaced or murdered or raped, it is a count of brutality and systematic armed vacation of land and villages. Yes, both parties; rebels and government-backed militia had contributed to the bloodshed, but Government is meant to govern, and control escalation of matters that would fuse any threats to national settlement and way of life.. Darfurese escaped to every direction, as Southern Sudanese done earlier, even Israel was forced to host some.. No one can say that nothing happened there, or demount the magnitude.. The same applies in events in Bor, Awerial, and many more to come..!!
2. Bush Administration had great role in igniting and blowing up the crisis in Darfur for particular agenda..
Yes, Decomposition of Sudan was an old plan, as part of the then called: United States of East Africa.. It is strategic plan, which serves higher targets than any administration would occupy the white house. Changing US Presidents doesn’t mean changing strategies, particularly the main ones related to resources, political controls and opening markets; otherwise the famous American Dream would fail. Changes are limited to how to execute strategies, not to set them.. USEA is coming like it or not; sooner or later..!!
3. Save Darfur Movements are currently frozen without support from Obama’s Administration..
Accordingly, Decomposition of Sudan was an imminent quest few years ago, yet been delayed till circumstances and environments are more adequate. Meanwhile; to serve multiple and complex interests, a joint venture was lately planned and negotiated to partner both Sudanese government and rebels in a mega enterprise to utilize the resources, defuse both local and regional tensions, and draw a big pretty picture to calm the poor illiterate (and literate as well) people with physical attractions that would last only for few decades. Not only Save Darfur slogan is dying, but also ICC plea. This reminds me with an old school punishment, to order the bullies to stand on their toes for a while..!!
4. Referendum of Jan 2011 will certainly come with voting for independence of Southern Sudan ..
Democratic election is a global phenomenon since 1990th. The merit is never to get people share the ruling process, but to get them shut up, as their voice had brought their rulers.. Sounds crazy, but very true.. Natural carve had clearly defined the majority as incapable to wisely choose, while only direct voting is used in Switzerland. Elections are great festives everywhere on earth, an opportunity to get everyone busy, while all critical decision and covert operations are done away from reports, politicians and public realization. Sorry Guys, these are the facts of life.. Therefore, no wonder about the amount of parties in-formation, candidates in-negotiations, and the dead who suddenly come alive, and deployed battalions to register the confused voters, and great chaos in every corner.. Outcomes would change or deliver nothing but tearful patriotic speeches, and sky-rocketing circulation of newspapers..!!
5. None of the surrounding countries, nor US is interested in dividing Sudan in smaller ethnic or cultural states..
Yes, no one cares about partitioning Sudan, same as done in India or Iraq. Ironically, the books-worms in Sudan did not realize the true political world around. Geopolitics means focal interest on your own national interests, National Security requires defining that National Interests, and threat opportunities they confront. Both are not available in Sudan: What we care for? and what risks associate? I doubt that any of the so-called political institutions or parties has a detailed document on any; therefore, we have chaotic and unsystematic choice of friends, aliens and enemies, as how it comes.. driven by personalities of Rulers, Ministers, Executives, or Police Officers; not the national consensus, or at least the intelligentsia’s..!!
6. Arabs are not interested in Sudanese politics, apart from direct economic and investment benefits..
Certainly, Arabs and any other, only see in Sudan appealing business and investment opportunities, not more. Global politics does not recognize emotional or cultural attachments. Grand Turkey, Grand Israel, Grand India, Grand Russia, United Germany, Grand Morocco, United Ireland, Grand Armenia, etc; are examples of political projects that never fade despite all wars, hardships, and conflicts. Strategists worldwide are setting their schemes based on such understanding and realization. This is how the other would value our existing and capacity; or to ignore it.. This is the roadmap for our Sudanese Strategy and existence on the globe.. No one would love you, but respect or disrespect you..!!
7. Egypt is certainly concerned on Nile issue, and already extended its hands to Southern Sudanese politicians and movements..
Egypt Quest should be the biggest in Sudan. Forget those emotional conversations, or Egyptian ads in Sudan TV, but look to it strategically. Assume; no language, religion, culture or history, but series of hostilities between Sudan & Egypt. What you would draw in your Egyptian policies? Should Sudan exercise his water rights the same Turkey done to Iraq and Syria? Or should trade its water rights with Egypt the same European countries are doing? What is the value of water if we lack adequate infrastructure to utilize our fertile land? What the parameters of any deal can be reached with Egypt, as it already uses the Sudanese surplus on top of its quote? Let’s admit it: Egyptian are far advanced, and historically as well in defining their national interests and security, and this is the core of their relation with Sudan.. In politics; there is no Love..!!
8. Finally, US Envoy driven by personal passion to support Sudan’s unity..
Finally, his great mistaken statement, which overturn any creditability of his talk.. USA has stable, fixed, defined institutions and decision making process.. Appointed envoys or ambassadors are not free to draw or plan, but to execute, observe, and justify changing recommendations. Their personal value or weight will never come to an effect, unless proven extraordinary politicians or visionaries. Even so, they have to confront the Congress Committees..!!
Dear All:I think there is nothing new in all what he said; yet sounds great and amazing for anyone who is not updated on the whole quest. On the contrary, I think he already missed critical issues; either not familiar with, or does not want to speak about. In addition; some of his statements are not precise as should academically be, nor set grounds for any strategic understanding or processing..
Regretfully, our politicians are not geared up to build our country.. None of them is a Statesman.. This is a big problem, and the true obstacle towards the future.. Mercy For All of Sudanese..
No comments:
Post a Comment