For weeks, I had hold myself tight not to comment on what's going on in Sudan.. It is anarchy between who protest against the regime, and who support..
Who supports have almost no voice, but factually control the country and defuse the fierce 24/7 efforts of who against..
Both come from the same towns, districts, neighborhoods.. and homes..!!
While the supporters have strong active leadership; in addition to state powers and utilities.. The oppositions has no leadership; despite the enthusiasm, bloods and dreams..
It became a game of who has the patience, resilience and breathe.. Who will be last standing, regardless of who is right or wrong.. Nevertheless the unspoken foreign support for both camps.. It is Globalization 2.0
I have folks back home who are part of the silent majority.. who can't afford losing a day work to join protests.. Similarly to others who afford life luxuries and enjoy the online politics..
The other day I had a discussion with one of the abroad-protesters; concluded with accepting my notion that a factor (X) is missing in all Sudanese history, politics and communities..
We became addicted to reinvent and redo our sociopolitical order..!
Despite the usual Sudanese pride of knowledgeability.. the intellectuals are no aware that modern politics have mathematical formulas.. I shall have no surprise if one replies that Sudanese are different..
Political Unrest is calculated by mathematics.. This is the 3rd Millennia and new world order.. Yet, called "Complex Systems"
The formula, includes the answers on when a Coup or a Riot would turn down a regime.. The link can lead any "Mathematics Enthusiastic" to learn more..
If we trust Science.. Did anybody calculated the surge in food prices in Sudan...?
Did Sudan crossed the 300 mark of price surge..?
This can be a starting point to rationalize what we do
FB Discussions:
Adil Abdalla It was not a coincidence to link Riots to Food.. This is a legacy that requires no proof.. However, 2014 Science tells, that if Food Price Index cross the 300 mark, a Change might happens..!
Hisham Musa Just yesterday I was thinking about exploring the math of our revolution. This paper would be interesting for me in this regard.
I know for a fact that a critical mass is more of a quality than a quantity. Works by folks such as Malcolm Galdwell estimate that only 10% of the population are enough to achieve critical mass. Pareto's principle puts that at 20% but Nassim Talib asserts that this critical mass can be reached with a much lower percentage provided that the minority are steadfast. When they're so, then their impact will be symmetrical to their size. So I was wondering how can we estimate the number of people on the streets on any given day of the revolution.
Thank you so much for sharing this. My brain is fired up :).
Adil Abdalla GS or George Soros funds the studies on Political Unrest.. Certainly; on behalf of many stakeholders.. Also, he would provide indirect and complex funds for revolutionists whenever they step out in the streets.. Also, many stakeholders encourage him; including the regimes he supports their opponents.. It is a complex politics..!!
Therefore, I always put an eye on publications, banners, graphics, communications, etc.. which are the fuel of today's populism..
Adil Abdalla Hisham Musa.. Social formulas are proven to be driven by local environments, where many non-scientific or non-measurable factors take place.. Such sociopolitical mathematic research still young to predict the humane spontaneous moves.. Yet, Riot, Crowd and Disaster management had benefited a lot and apply lots too..
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