This is the most professional analysis about Pakistan and India..!!
Yes. Pakistan can become a developed country, far more developed than India, even when India is far ahead right now. For this Pakistan government has to take some hard decisions and policy changes. There are some short term steps and some long term. Remember that India was near bankrupt in 1991 and today is hugely successful - long way to go still but blooming.
(There are some comparisons to India which are inevitable but the comparison is not to demean Pakistan; rather to show the way to emulate.)
Cut down on India rhetoric: Far too much importance is given to India and especially Indian Defence purchases (India has S-400, India has SU-30s, India is going to get Rafael’s,etc.) What India does is India’s business. There is no need to match and frankly Pakistan can never achieve parity.
Focus on own people: A nation of happy people is a nation that is powerful and attractive for investments. Internal growth and development should be the priority.
Edit: A rather nasty and abusive comment I received was about happiness. The person quoted World Happiness Index figures and how Pakistan was way ahead than India. He told me to go and build toilets and then f*** myself. My current answer is very sincerely meant. To that misguided person my only answer is that if you are happy with the state of affairs in Pakistan, the state of the economy, the crashing PKR, then what can I say? Be happy and let things run its course.
Land Reforms: From what I read and heard, the zamindari system still exists in Pakistan where in a handful of rich own large tracts of land in the country. The rich landlord eats and sleeps in his mansion in Lahore, Rawalpindi, Karachi, etc. while the poor labour toils his land but gets no benefits. While there have been LR acts, I believe that there has been no implementation. Land Reform will bring good distribution of income.
Education: Pakistan did not focus on higher education enough. While India was building the IITs and IIMs, which have become world recognised, Pakistan lacks similar institutes. That is why India is a powerhouse of IT world whereas Pakistan has limited presence.
Women Education: There is huge gender disparity in education. It is estimated that only, in some places, only 18% of women in Pakistan have level 10 or higher education. The woman is the first teacher of the child. In India, the IT sector is powered 40% by female employees. Educated women not only bring up children better, they complement and supplement the income.
Infrastructure Development: CPEC may be a good thing or may be a bad thing. But the thing about CPEC is, is it bringing the skill and technology transfer to Pakistan? Or will it be Pakistan’s Habbantotta? How much ports and road cess revenue is being shared? Can Pakistan undertake another roadway on its own? India is spending a huge sum on Bullet Train project but with full technology and skill transfer. Pakistan must be able to roads and bridges by themselves. India has done it and so can Pakistan.
But ports, roads and bridges are not the only infra. Pakistan has to focus on power including renewable sources, irrigation, housing development, development of new cities, etc. India lags here too.
Give up on Terror; hug peace: Yeah, the world knows that official line is that Pakistan is against terror and in fact is the greatest victim of terror. But frankly Pakistan has not done enough. It has shown no intention either. The investors of the world do not wish to invest in countries that are bedrock of terror outfits. Pakistan must show serious intent in curbing terror.
Forget Kashmir. Increase Trade with India: This is the most difficult thing for Pakistan. Kashmir is only going to bring more grief. Pakistan and India can agree to convert the LOC as a permanent border. Increasing trade and exchange with India will be much more helpful. I am told that India and Pakistan buy each other’s goods via third parties in UAE and Singapore and pay hefty commissions.
There are a few more options. Not all are simple. Not all may bring immediate benefits but in the long run they will. It is a matter of setting aside the ego.
Edit 2 (30-May-2019): Many friends from Pakistan commented on how “they don’t suffer from India rhetoric and in fact it is the other way round”. To that effect, they quoted the TV channels of Pakistan vs. India, elections in Pakistan vs. India.
The whole thing has been misunderstood. The rhetoric lies in the minds of the Establishment and not general populace (maybe). The survival of the Army Generals depends upon the anti India stance. Let me also explain how India rhetoric, the unbalanced arms race, terror funding, etc., have crippled Pakistan.
In 1985, the Per Capita GDP of Pakistan was about 21.5% higher than India’s (Pak US$350 : Ind US$274). Today, the Pakistan per capita GDP is some US$ 1222.50 and forecasted to grow to US$ 1400 in 2020 while India’s PCGDP is US$ 1963.55 and forecasted to grow to US$ 2350 in 2020. India is 60.1% ahead. How did Pakistan lose out by about 81 to 82%?
Pakistan, while a smaller nation, is a much blessed nation. Almost whole land is fertile, it has a unique geographic advantageous location, it is rich in minerals, its population is lower (but growing at an alarming rate 2.5 times of India), the problems are lower, etc. Smaller nations grow much more than larger nations. The growth rate till 1985 was about 6% and exceeded India’s measly 2.75%.
It was around this time (1985) that Pakistan started funding terrorism against India and started the Kashmiri insurgency heavily. They also started heavy military purchases including the F-16s. Pakistan's general thought that we won the war in Afghanistan by attrition. We can do the same to India. The US was funding Pakistan to fight against Afghans. Some of the heavy funding was to take care of the huge Afghan refugees. But a lot of these funds were misused and ended in terror funding or the corrupt. Pakistan still had to shelter the refugees. The money came from the exchequer.
This is what I mean by India rhetoric and it is deeply coupled with Kashmir.
People have also questioned on terror and how IK is sincere and wanting to talk and Modi isn't. There are reasons for this. Why did the bus to Lahore in 1999 end up in Kargil? The Kashmir problem was almost solved at that time. Who helped the attack on J&K assembly and later the Indian Parliament? Who sent terrorists to Mumbai on 26/11/2008? Modi invited Nawaz Sharif and he gracefully agreed. Yet pretty soon there were Uri, Pathankot incidents and later Pulwama. Pakistan can’t honestly say that they were ‘freedom fighters’ fighting alone. JeM have taken responsibility of these events. Pakistan can’t hide behind excuses such as ‘give us the proofs’. Where do all these people get the training and logistics support? How is 240+ kg of RDX, detonators, timing devices obtained and where does the training to assemble it come from?
Pakistan is always in denial mode. They denied whereabouts of Osama Bin Laden. What happened exactly?
All this not only creates mistrust but that logistics support to “freedom fighters” is costing huge amount of money. The army/ISI can’t provide their own arms to the terrorists; they provide funds. The terrorists buy their arms and ammunition from global arms dealers at open market (much higher) price. Hence they require more money - the same money that could be used to build better roads, dams, canals, higher educational institutes, etc.
Just a fortnight ago, Pakistan got some $6 billion from IMF and the first result was deep PKR devaluation. What is $6 billion? It is loose change for tea/coffee. A similar sum was spent by Laxmi Mittal to purchase the bankrupt Essar Steel of India. And yet, this money was direly needed. It has come with deep consequences. We went thru same crisis in 1991 and I know what happened. How long will this money last. Without fresh global investments, Pakistan will have to back to IMF in a year. The world views Pakistan as an unsafe place. Reality may be different but perceptions matter.
Just imagine ... if peace accord had been signed in 1999. The Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline would have been complete - bringing huge revenues for Pakistan. A road transit would have been created from New Delhi to Central Asia bringing customs duty, cess and road tolls to Pakistan. These two would have earned more than $6b per annum. This is the benefit of bilateral trade.
I have told to forget Kashmir and India. Cut down on (useless) defence spending.Ironically, if Pakistan becomes rich then they can really escalate on defence spending.
I could go on. My answer and advice is to take good things. India is not perfect; in fact, it is very far from perfect.
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