Sudan 2012

This post synchronizes the planned protests (Friday; 6 July) across Sudanese cities, against AlBasheer regime.. It was precisely meant for this venue, and prior to any results or developments.. It addresses the protest from a remote point of view, which assesses both pros and cons in a static stat..!

So, why euphoria in Sudan did not reach the public boiling point..?

Despite how AlBasheer regime had various scandals, atrocities and suppressions; the public response is almost cooling down, with less appetite for revolt and change. Despite the heat-up exercised by various fictions, and enthusiastic youth, people do not leave their homes and workplaces to protest and bring the forcible changes, as done earlier in Sudan and elsewhere.. What is the missing chip in this puzzle..?

Among the regime and the opponents, there are many principle issues to note..

Certainly, Security Forces had proven smart enough to avoid any bloodshed and serious causalities or fatalities during the days of protest. Number of detainees is limited compared to campaigns and demographics. They had learned the lessons of Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen, and accordingly set their response plans. On the contrary, opponents were confused by this lean responses, unable to change tactics (which was built on provoking security till they violently respond), or to elevate the public support (which is usually triggered by bilateral violence). Security was also successful to disconnect the protests, disenable any large streams to be formed, while no on-ground opposition coordination was effectively active..

Obviously, Political and Operational Leadership of protest had serious miscarriages, despite the fierce campaigns on social media (which is reachable for no more than 10,000 activists), or the international campaigns across the globe (which have serious creditability quest to the national public). Political parties, opponent fictions and rebel groups are short to develop any reliable leadership. Therefore, slogans are beyond the public demand, roadmaps are extremely eloquent and public mode is notably calm rather than excited. Using the repeated slogans of Arabic Spring shakes the foundations of the protest, as those were products of Muslims Brotherhood bloc, who already rules Sudan..!

International Support for political change in Sudan is shy rather than busy. Activists disagree on how fundamental the international role is, in order to materialize national political changes. Syrian chronicles prove the same, as well as Libyan, Yemeni and Bahraini. Sudanese activists (and many others) are obsessed with the Egyptian Drama (which was in fact well orchestrated scenarios; with various players, advisors and observers) aiming at its advocated political changes. The likelihood to repeat this drama is greatly doubtful; considering the amount of uncertainties it had created. However, despite the enthusiastic voices, the Sudanese Quest is much simpler, defined and regulated than the Egyptian one..

Finally; the Epistemic Structure of Sudanese Politics is still immature; despite 3 public revolutions, 4 political regimes and uncounted numbers of military coups. Certainly, the low Human Development Stat justifies uprooted attempts to created mature, democratic and coherent systems. On the contrary, Sudan is partitioned and expected to witness more serious divides, rather than building up any form of sociopolitical governance. Deterioration of identity, declining of probabilities and uncertainty of approaches had collectively created stat of anarchy that supports the current opportunitists, frustrates the change activists and exhausts any helping hands, and certainly bore the public..!

Political Utopia..

During the last 15 months, which had the nickname Arabic Spring; lots of serious debates and hilarious hypocrisy had enabled the outstanding (and profitable) circulations of both old and new media.. Many names came out as commentators, analysts and journalists.. Several hundred became overnight notable political activists, while dozens of others became overnight leaders-in-charge.. However, such chaos reflects decades of bizarre ideology creation and transformation.. Arabs had that articulation in 1970th, whereas all political mandates and sociopolitical characteristics had changed..

Despite how the dream of Utopia was agreed to be unrealistic and symbolic; it had conceived with the inevitably-realistic politics; and delivered mass confusion and uncertainty.. People, particularly the youth, had turned their gatherings in streets, cafes, clubs, institutions and Facebook into race for assumptions, rumors and imputed facts.. The high rates of cultural deficit and isolation; had made it easy to translate the domains, and fill the context by inadequate local substances.. Both intelligentsia and commons were easy prey by professional monopolies and distractions; and by their own Political Utopia..

The devil was locally made by a supposedly intellectual elite, whose exposure to the world is limited.. Linguistic barriers, poor translation-production, and natural resilience of local stigmas (compared to the world); had collectively isolated the events from cold (external) critiques or support.. People loved the hot and exciting events of demonstrations, assassinations, retaliations, biographies and Utopias.. As how most Arabs were always attached to their personalized media, locally or abroad (apart from the Turkish drama); as how their epistemic realizations are intellectually challenged.. The unspoken Arabic priggism is a Preserver of identity, a Product of history, and a Protector against globalization.. Nevertheless, Utopia has to be global, as each “Self” needs the “Other” to knows itself..

Only Tunisians had safely sailed with their “Jasmine”; by their cross border debates, while all other Arabs are fractured, distracted and disarray.. Not only the price of self realization is high, but also the goals become uncertain.. It was not Facebook that ignited the protest, but the unemployment.. It was not the intellectuals who run the upraising, but the radical Islamists.. It was not the nicely written political manifests, but the eye catching banners.. It was not the returned fortune-expatriates, but who shared malnutrition, malfunction and malformation.. All other Political Parties fade by their lack of organization, resilience and devotion.. Despite how the Islamist had ruled Sudan since 1989, Arabic Intelligentsia is proven freakily unconscious, extremely ignorant and severely challenged..

This is not about how Islamists are good or bad, but about how the consensus is.. Certainly, political mechanism will eventually develop a winner, but on what cost..? The concurrent events tells how the public is childish comparable to the administrations.. This supports patriarchy and big-brotherhood advocacy rather than revolt against.. Violence, physical and verbal; interprets the self destruction rather than salvation.. Gradual surrender is commonly growing due to the natural contractions against Change.. Political Utopia is gradually replaced by Maslow’s roles.. As Arabs start to know the true Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party, Arabic Spring successfully replaces the Turkish dramas..!!

This article by inspired by Moroccan constitutional changes, Algerian iron fest, Tunisian mature reconciliation, Libyan power struggle, Egyptian epistemic disarray, Sudanese octopus regime, Yemeni fractured elite, Saudi radical victories, Bahraini string-toys, Kuwaiti strong tides, Iraqi politics of greed, Syrian search of leadership, Lebanon trades for prosperity, Jordanian calculated moves, and Palestinian aging breath.. Hemdan's Green Coast carfuly watches and analyzes.. AfroArabs of Mauritania, Somalia and Djibouti are left for Africom for appropriate actions..!!

Clooney & Sudan..

It is never fair to compare Clooney to our folks, or vs. versa.. He is secured relaxed (estimated $15 mln), seeking a legacy for his name, and has staff and fan to advise, support and protect.. Our folks are quite different.. Each is unsecured worried (GDP per Capita $2,220), seeking bread to provide and has no one to intelligently advise, support or protect..

Those who have the preparedness in Sudan; are either abroad, or living patriotic dreams on land.. Fewer are truly seized inside, bringing some life to repeated slogans and banners.. Yet, this is all could be.. Pity..!

I actually don't compare.. but highlighting the basis of typical political analysis.. Welfare Criteria, GDP Distribution and Culture Profile..

How fatal to only focus on our case; no need to discuss others, as each has its own geopolitical stand and breakdown.. I had questioned for the last 20 years; and still do; about who would list down (the Sudanese National Security Framework: SNSF).. Either we don’t know, or we can’t know..!!

Inevitably that each community has an elite; regardless what, how or where.. Your question is fair on their creditability..But they are, the same as Al-Inqaz; are our own domestic products.. They had not been imported, nor imposed (I disagree with the late AlTaib Saleh).. We need to be brave enough to question both integrity and essence of our sociopolitical culture..!!

We should be more mindful professional.. Stop consuming politics.. and Miss what possibly to be done; because of our destructive tendency for generalization, decomposition and complacence.. We should learn the lessons, to excel not to pass..!!

Do or Die..!!

करो या मरो 

“It's time to do or die now, just like during our struggle for independence," he tells us wagging his finger. Either we succeed in our mission or we make the ultimate sacrifice. The government is trying to fool the people of this country - we will not let that happen.”

Anna Hazare

The global unrest is not limited to 2011, but had started earlier across various countries, and various continents. Two years ago, it had started in Ukraine, France, Argentine, South Africa and Philippines. Lately in this year, it had ignited again in Iran, Greece, Malaysia, eastern province of KSA, Tunisia, Egypt, briefly Jordan, Yemen, briefly Morocco, Bahrain, Nigeria, Chili, Spain, Syria, Israel, UK and India; yet the global media chose a “sexy” banner for this global phenomenon: Arabic Spring..!!

On one hand; “The Global Media Coalition” aimed fiercely to stigmatize the Arabic regimes and elites, which had for long practiced the “Petro-Dollar” arrogance, failed to differentiate between political “Crusade” and religious one, and materialized the “theoretical” clash of civilization with twisted religious and cultural codes. It doesn’t require a mathematician to run the math..!!

On the other hand; “The Controllers of Global Order” had to limit the unrest within the third world, rather than admiting the global nature of its cause roots and symptoms. The efforts made to cover up or paint the political boiling in Southern America, Europe and Far East, were technically magnificent. Simply, they can’t practice the global patriarchy and policing; while confronting “The Gang Culture" in their Front; oops; back yards..!!

Suppression was cleverly used in association with political “foxy” tactics, for the miscarriage of the public euphoria in Morocco, Jordan, KSA, Greece and Nigeria; yet suggest a decade long tension. Some countries are suffering spiral political deterioration and uncertainty, which likely to live for 4-6 years, as badly fuming in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. Across the region; a vacuum of leadership is broadly recognized to last for many many years to come..!!

Corruption, Poverty and Unfairness are common motivations for the poor commons to protest; joining hands with an angry jobless, futureless and “cultureless” youth. Details, reactions and severity had varied as per the various indexes. While the majority could not understand "head from tail" of concurrent economic interruptions and financial turmoil across the world, they only had sensed the worse still to come. Then, the wishful dream of tomorrow had blown up, with no meaning to scarify or adapt. Ironically, the agencies for anti corruptions, state policing or social welfare were the main defaulters..!!

People had walked into the streets as nothing else to do: the Dads with empty pockets by the mid of the month, the Mums with skinny or dying kids, the Girls who are subject to harassment in every corner, the boys who are religiously and intellectually abused, the bread earners who can’t confront the inflation anymore, the public officers who can’t report violation of the well-knitted wealthy ones, etc..

I do not knowledgably accept the banner of Arabic Spring.. It is totally wrong, deceiving and misleading.. Yet, my greater concern is the epistemic silence.. Carelessness or Ignorance..?

Some believe in the Aztec prophecy of End of The World in 2012.. I guess it is the end of the world as we used to know, while a birth of another with no clear identity yet.. However, it will be a world with no honor for politicians, scholars or armed ones..

Politics will be as simple as basic needs, while stop any bailing out..

Knowledge will be as simple as laws of Newton, not the luxury of science..

Arms are not ballistics, but simple missiles like stones, pats and Molotov’s..

Welcome back; The Stone Age..!