The 40 thieves

 

How Winston Churchill’s ‘40 thieves’ carved out the modern Middle East

Decisions made 100 years ago at Cairo Conference still create conflict in the region today

For Winston Churchill they were “40 thieves”, an irreverent comment on the illustrious gathering at Cairo’s Semiramis Hotel on March 12, 1921.

Churchill, later to become Britain’s great wartime prime minister, was one of them, an Ali Baba who led the gang on the banks of the Nile.

At the time, he was head of the Colonial Office charged with resolving the chaos of the Middle East after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire in 1918, at the end of the First World War.

The “40 thieves”, a reference to the number of delegates at the conference, hoped to resolve three of the region’s most pressing issues: Palestine and its growing Jewish population, the territory east of the Jordan River, known as Transjordan, and control of the land we know today as Iraq.

Arabic Fauxtography

لا أدري أحقيقةً فستانها شفاف ، أم الأمر فوتوشوب

كتب صديقي معترضاً على نشر صورة جثمان مكشوف الوجه لفنان سوداني شاب قد وافته المنية اثر علة لم تمهله طويلاً ، فمثل هذه الصورة تمثل انتهاكاً صريحاً للأعراف والقيم التي قامت عليها مجتمعاتنا منذ القدم ، حرمة الموتى تتصدر قائمة من المحرمات التي يجب التعامل معها ، أو هكذا كانت مجتمعاتنا

لعلي أحمد صديقي في محاولته ايقاظ النائم من القيم الاجتماعية ، وانتشال الغارق منها في سبات الفوضي ، غير أنني لا أملك حبس التعليق على مسلسل ظواهر استفزازية تجتاح المجتمعات في السودان والعرب والعالم الثالث: أجيال الألفية الثالثة

لعل جيل الألفية 1995 الى 2005 قد استلم عهدة قلقة من سابقيه ، أجيال أكس و واي ، الأول من مواليد 1965 الى 1980 والثاني من مواليد 1980 الى 1995
حيث عاصر أكس سقوط النظم والمفاهيم وانتفاضات الشباب من أجل التغيير ، بينما واي قد شهد مفردات في فلسفات التقنية التي أثمرت بدورها تطبيقات متسارعة للحاسوب والاتصالات والعمليات ، هكذا كان توقيع جيل بأن ( كل شئ ممكن) ، وصار توقيع الآخر بأن (لا مستحيل تحت الشمس) ، ومن ثمَ فلا عجب أن يقرأ علماء الاجتماع تدهور المفاهيم الاجتماعية لدى جيل الآلفية ، مقرونة بنسبة إلحاد متزايدة ، على الأقل في المجتمعات الغربية

هكذا ، عرف ناطقوا العربية صور وجوه وأجساد الشهداء من ضحايا انتفاضة القدس الأولى ، ثم صور الضجة الاعلامية (العالمية) لضحايا غزة ، ثم رويداً رويداً صور شهداء (الربيع العربي) مضرجين في دمائهم في مصراته وبيروت وصنعاء ، وأخيراً الصور المفبركة باستخدام الفوتوشوب لكل من الضحايا والجلادون في سورية ومصر والسودان ، والمتابع لهذ القراءة الفوتوغرافية عبر السنوات الخمسون الأخيرة يستطيع ادراك التغيير في المزاج الثقافي والقيمي العربي والمسلم ، الذي بدأ بالجدل حول تجسيد حمزة رضي الله عنه في فيلم الرسالة ، وانتهى مؤخراً بالتجسيد الدرامي لعمر بن الخطاب رضي الله عنه

هكذا ، صار كل شئ ممكناً بلا قيود

برغم حمد الأعداد المتزايدة من دارسي الحاسوب (سواء بالرغبة أم بالمجموع) فلقد تميز أبناء العروبة بتطوير (فبركة) ابتكار وتشويه الحقائق على صفحات المنتديات الاجتماعية الأثيرية ، دون وجود أعراف أخلاقية أو ثقافية تصنع أفقاً عملياً لا يجدر تجاوزه ، فالتسابق على أشده من أجل لي أعناق الحقائق ، والتفاخر على أشده بحجم الزيف الذي يمكن ابتكاره ، والمتابع قد لا يجد مثيلاً لدي الآخرين إلا وهناك تنويهاً بأنه غير حقيقي ، حيث صنعت قوانينهم ومؤسساتهم المتطورة حائلاً دون تزييف الوعي العام ، لذا صار من الصعب الاقرار بمصداقية أية وثيقة ، حيث طال التزييف صور ومقولات الزعماء والحكماء واللصوص والقوادين على حد سواء

هكذا ، لم يعد هناك مستحيلاً على الأرض العربية والمسلمة

بين الجيوش الالكترونية (الرسمية والمناهضة لها) في الخرطوم والرباط والقاهرة واسطنبول وعمان وفيالق الدرك والأمن العام في سائر المدن والعواصم العربية والاسلامية ، صراع للسيطرة على وعي الشعوب ، وعلى الأخص طبقاتها المسحوقة بين الدولار والدينار ، وبينما يفتقد النظام المدني العربي والمسلم أية أطر للحوكمة والمحاسبة ، فلا مناص من تدهور كل من الوعي والثقافة الشعبية ، وبالتالي يستشري التأكل والصدأ في سائر مكونات الأمة ، حيث تقلصت منظومة القيم إلى خدمة العروش والكروش والقروش والرموش ، ويتساوي في ذلك النظم الحاكمة والمعارضة والمتعاونة والمستفيدة ، على حد سواء

والله المستعان

ABC Politics

Singapurian Unspoken Governance

When a Politician, or any Public Advocate commits a minor mistake, all his legacy would go in the drain, with total loss of credibility.. It will be total waste to further address any of his activities, regardless how innovative and creative they might be..

In the public arena there is no room for Forgiveness or Try-again..

This Maturity gauge is definition between Urbanism and Chaos..
Between Us and the Others..

Our underdeveloped people like spreading gossips, tales and justifications for who had gone wrong.. Then they claim been betrayed when everything around goes wrong.. Later they develop anger on how those Politicians had cheated them..

Maybe these are nations in love with suppression, anarchy and/or mindlessness..

When the envision is lost, what eyes would mean
When vision is lost, what pretty eyes would mean

Only Allah swt would help

 

عندما يسقط السياسي (أو كل من قصد العمل العام) في صغيرة ، فلقد سقط في سائر الكبائر ، وفقد مصداقيته بكاملها ، وصار من العبث ومضيعة الوقت ترصد ما بقى من أفعاله وكلماته ، بغض النظر عن الايجابية أو الابداع فيها

في العمل العام ليس هناك مكان لكلمة: معليش أو معلهش

مؤشر النضج هذا هو من يفصل بين التخلف والتحضر ، بيننا وبين الآخر ، حيث نحتفي بترديد الحكايات والتبريرات والمقارنات عمن بالفعل قد سقطوا ، ثم نجتر الخيبة الدفينة عندما تتردى الأوضاع والمصالح ، ثم نحثو التراب على رؤوسنا بأنهم قد نكثوا العهود.. لعلنا شعوب من هواة الاضطهاد أو العبثية أو اللاعقلانية

عندما تنطمس البصيرة فلا فائدة من البصر ، وعندما ينطفئ البصر ، فلا معنى لجمال العيون

الله المستعان

السقطات الصغيرة أو اللمم من الذنوب الشخصية شئ ، والسقطات الصغيرة من ولاة الأمور شئ أخر

ببساطة: من لا يمكنه ادراك الصورة الجمعية والكبيرة للأشياء ، لا يعد أهلاً لتولى الشأن العام ، واذا ما أسند اليه أمر أكبر من قدرته على الاستيعاب والادارة فقد أخطأ كل من تولى ترشيحة وتثنيته وتنصيبه

أمر الجماعة لا يحتمل التجربة والخطأ ، فالخطأ يقوَم بالسيف كما أقرها بن الخطاب ، مشرع الدولة العظيم ، وفي هذا تتساوى كافة الاخطاء كبيرها وصغيرها ، فثمن الخطأ هو واقع ومستقبل الجماعة بكافة أطيافها

وما آل اليها الحال في مجتمعاتنا سببه أننا خلطنا الخاص والعام ، ونصبنا أنفسنا ألهة ، نستحسن من نشاء ونعذب من نشاء من منتسبي العمل العام ، سياسيين كانوا أو موظفين ، دون أن تكون لنا أدوات العلي القدير جل شأنه ، في ادراك النوايا والسمو عن التأثر بالمجريات ، فكان خطأونا مضاعفاً ومتضاعفاً ، وسيدفع الثمن الفادح الأبناء والأجنة ، وستترقبنا لعناتهم بأننا لم نحسن الاختيار ، أو فرطنا في حقهم في العيش الكريم وارتسام المدن الفاضلة واقعاً لهم

القانون لا يحمي المغفلين ، أو الجهل به لا يعفي من المحاسبة ، والقانون هو الاطار المتوازن للحياة بين الواجبات والحقوق ، وحيث أننا وضعنا قوانين العمل العام ، فلا مجال للتسامح في انتهاكها ، وعلى النقيض ، فلقد وضع العلي القدير جل شأنه قانوننا الروحي والشخصي ، وبيده العفو كيفما شاء ، فبينما نحن نتأثر بنتائج تسامحنا ، فسبحانه ليس كذلك

الأمم الآخري لم تنهض لانهم كانوا أكثر رحمة ، بالعكس ، لم يتركوا مجالاً لرحمة أي مسئول ، وبرغم الشطط من السلطة الرابعة ، الا أن الجمهور صار أكثر معافاة من خلال الاختيار الطبيعي لنمو الأحداث والمجريات

The Slave Market..

Le Marché d'esclaves

The Slave Market

By Jean-Léon Gérôme،

1866

Jean Leon Gerome had visited Turkey, Egypt, Morocco and Syria, creating many paintings on life within Ottoman Empire.. At those times; Women were commodity for sale and buy, with preference for European women..

Total number of European females sold within Ottoman markets exceeds 1,250,000
This is more than all African bought into slavery in United States (800,000)

Many commentators had advocated how Islam encouraged Slavery, permitting Muslims to wed and mate their slaves as much as they can.. Regretfully, such false claims contradict the true essence of the Religion and factual chronicals of times..

Yes, Islam did not prevent Slavery, one of the oldest social codes among humans.. It had considered how it was economically critical at those times, yet no single phrase in Quran or Hadeeth had came encouraging Slavery..
On the contrary; Slavery had ealier declined by the emancipation, which was verdict or a penal tool against some violations..

However, much Muslims turned the activity into formal one using the given legislative opportunity in absence of literal prevention or prohibtion..
As usual, Philosophies and Religious frameworks are not to be blamed to followers ill-interpretations..!



Occupy the Arabic Media..

Journalism.. a coalition among accidental 3Ps:

Politicians, Professionals and Plotters..

The Media Professionals are mostly lost between Politicians and Plotters..

A life Cycle between "Water-Gate" and "News of the World"..!!

To deliver a message; Mass Media "Has To" monopolize ears, eyes and “sexual” senses of the audiences..

Twisting logic and rationales by repetitions, distractions and stimulations..
Despite the few decent ones within; They all follow the "Code"..!!

The only "Industry" with “Affiliates”; who claim to know consciousnessly better, think epistemically better, feel insightfulnessly better and also abused aggressively more..!!

When the lab contains Illiteracy, Poverty, Arrogance and Moneys

The Product is filthy, smelly and awful..!!

Someone should call to “Occupy the Arabic Media”..!

The Main Pitfalls of Egyptian Intellegencia (1)

The intellegencia or the intelligentsia (from Russian интеллигенция, Russian pronunciation; from Latin: intelligentia) is a social class of people engaged in complex, mental and creative labor directed to the development and dissemination of culture, encompassing intellectuals and social groups close to them (e.g., artists and school teachers). Initially the term was applied mostly in the context of Russia and later the Soviet Union, and had a narrower meaning based on a self-definition of a certain category of intellectuals. Wikipedia

1. Secular Salvation from Religious Distress:

Following the Ottoman colonial (or Caliphate) dark ages; Arabs aimed to catch the worldly renaissance by intensive European academic studentships. The returnee degree-holders had confronted the well-established religious institutions; which traditionally run Judiciary, Academia and Arbitrations. Seeds of Western secular culture had inevitably grown by their frustration and distress. Later, their civic strives had driven the 20th century’s slow modernization of Arabic governments. On parallel, they empowered their proposition by the separation procedural or practical weakening of cords between state and religion. Such undeclared separation would not be an issue elsewhere, but on the contrary had led the uncertainties among these severely underdeveloped Muslim communities. Religion had always dominated both cultural characteristics and identities of Arabs. Therefore, and till date, Arab States are critically ruled by the contradictions between intellectuals and customs, between bureaucracy and rituals, and between the personal pragmatism and the social reflections..!

The bitter and long lasting traumas are still alive among all literate Arabic groups; with the ready to use banner to condemn the religious opponents for all pitfalls and unrests. Nevertheless, similarly the otherwise performs. Therefore, most civic and political debates are notoriously illogic, unpractical and imbalanced. This was the gateway for military and foreign interventions in Arabian chronicles.

Egypt had been described among the others; as the most complex and diverse Arabic fabrics; therefore, addressing its development would shade lots of lights on the socio-education issues.

On counting the influence of religious institution in Egypt, more than the third of school pupils and one tenth of university students are incubated by AlAzhar. The planning and financial decays; which had swiped the educational system, had left deep cracks in identity formation and professional preparedness. Certainly, such deteriorations had critical balance due to the limited self-resources of religious pupils (mostly from rural or poor families); compared to the reasonable funds available for their counter parties (mostly from urban and better-off families). Annually, the 750,000 pupils and students AlAzhar enjoy $10 billion versus the 2.2 million pupils and students of public education’s $8 billion (or 4.4% of Egypt $188 billion GDP). In addition to the non-auditable poverty layouts, the urban secular environment allows modern communication and exposure among children and youth many times more than the religious ones. Notably, great portion of AlAzhar budget is allocated for social loans and subsidizes to its affiliates. In a way, the current education structures reflect the socioeconomic patterns of Egyptian society. Despite how it had preserved the orthodox cultural framework; it had deepened the gaps among social groups.

The Egyptian Intellegencia had been swinging between both cultural themes (Secular and Religious), with little opportunity for conciliation and integration. Yes, the Islamic religious verdict against secularism is clear and unarguable, despite the many efforts to find new wording to satisfy the global trends. In fact; it is a serious epistemic conflict; which has no resolution, not only in Egypt; but across all Muslim communities. It is well known that religious concepts often need updated interpretations to satisfy intellectual evolutions and adopt emerged philosophies. When traditional Imams (Muslim Priests) are short to adequately comment and arbitrate the living events and chronicles, many enthusiastic, yet untrained and unauthorized religious individuals would seize the opportunity to lead the common majority. Public advocacy is always magical and appealing for the outspoken. Most of them are not well versed on the religious aggregates, but have fewer advantages over the others by memorizing Quran verses and Hadeeth teachings. Those had added chaotic situation by creating parallel religious informalities and debates. The relatively-flat religious knowledge had shaken the foundations of the Arabic epistemic landscape. Therefore, as how Arabic Intellegencia created its salvation, it also got confused by the opportunities around..!

The Muslim patriarchy had allowed very narrow opportunity for none-affiliates to participate in the debate to modernize the religious epistemia. This indirectly had created the radical Islamists; who had shocked the Egyptian life style since 1970th. In the absence of agreed referrals, the role of Political-Islamists had added more confusion to both secular and moderate activists, endorsing an end for the attempts to merge religious and secular frameworks. The recent conclusion tells how the Egyptian Intellegencia became unable to provide solutions, as they were already stuck in deforming the complex cause-roots. They were greatly the accused and the victims as well..!

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Next:

2. Maspero: The School, the Best & the Students
3. Butter-Flying the Public service

4. Techno-Military vs. Technocrats

5. Cult Affiliation Replaces Elite Syndrome

خلاص العلمانية من التشدد الديني :

بعد العصور المظلمة للاستعمار العثماني (أو الخلافة العثمانية) ؛ سعى العرب لنيل النهضة الحضرية الاوربية، وذلك من خلال تكثيف المنح الدراسية الأوروبية.. كان الطالب العائد يواجه المؤسسات الدينية الراسخة ؛ التي تسيطر تقليديا على القضاء ، والعلوم والمرجعية.. حتماً ، فان قد بذور الثقافة العلمانية الغربية تؤدي الى المزيد من نمو الإحباط والضيق.. لاحقاً في القرن العشرين ، ومن خلال المدنية التي كانت تسعى وراء التحديث البطيء للحكومات العربية.. وفي موازاة ذلك ، تمكن الحاداثيون من بذر الفصل الإجرائي أو العملي وإضعاف الارتباط بين الدين والدولة.. ومثل هذا الفصل غير المعلن أدى الى اثارة الاضطراب في هذه المجتمعات المتخلفة والمرتبطة بشدة بالاسلام.. لذا ، كان الدين دائما يهيمن على الخصائص الثقافية والهويات للعرب والمسلمين.. لذلك ، وحتى الآن ، وتحكم الدول العربية من خلال التناقضات بين المثقفين والتقاليد ، وبين البيروقراطية والطقوس ، وبين البراغماتية الشخصية والانعكاسات الاجتماعية..!

لا تزال الصدمات مريرة وطويلة الأمد بين المثقفين والمتدينين العرب ؛ مع استعدادهم دوماً لاستخدام الشعارات المعادية للتقدم لإدانة المعارضة الدينية في جميع المخاطر والاضطرابات.. لذلك ، فان معظم المناقشات المدنية والسياسية هي غير منطقية إلى حد كبير ، غير عملية وغير متوازنة.. وكان هذا مدخلاً للتدخلات العسكرية والخارجية في روئ الواقع العربي..

وقد وصفت مصر بين العرب الآخرين ؛ على تميزها أكثر الوقائع العربية تعقيدا وتنوعا ، وبالتالي ، فإن معالجة تطورها يلقي الكثير من الأضواء على القضايا الاجتماعية والتعليم العربية..

ان نفوذ المؤسسة الدينية في مصر والمحتضنة من قبل الأزهر ، يمتد الى أكثر من ثلث تلاميذ المدارس عشر طلاب الجامعات. ومع تداعي التخطيط والمالية في النظام التعليمي ، فان تصدعات عميقة قد تركت أثارها في تكوين الهوية والاستعداد المهني.. بالتأكيد ، كانت مثل هذه الانهيارات موازنة حرجة ، نظرا لمحدودية الموارد الذاتية للتلاميذ التعليم الديني (ومعظمهم من الأسر الريفية أو الفقيرة) ؛ بالمقارنة مع الأموال المتاحة لأقرانهم في التعليم المدني (ومعظمهم من العائلات الحضرية وأفضل حالا).. سنويا ، يتمتع 750.000 من تلاميذ وطلاب الأزهر ب 10 مليار دولار مقابل 8 مليارات دولار (188 مليار دولار أو 4.4 ٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي) لنحو 2.200.000 من تلاميذ وطلاب التعليم المدني.. بالإضافة إلى ذلك ، فان البيئة الحضرية العلمانية تتيح وسائط الاتصال الحديثة بين الأطفال والشباب المدني أكثر بكثير من البيئات الدينية.. هذا ، وعلى وجه الخصوص ، يتم تخصيص جزء كبير من ميزانية الأزهر لقروض وإعانات اجتماعية لأسر التلاميذ والطلاب.. مما لا شك فيه ، فان هياكل التعليم الحالية تعكس الأنماط الاجتماعية والاقتصادية في المجتمع المصري.. وعلى الرغم من الكيفية التي تم بها الحفاظ عليها في إطار من الارثوذكسية الثقافية ؛ التى تعمق الفجوات بين الفئات الاجتماعية..!

كانت ولاتزال النخبة المصرية تتأرجح بين كلا الاطارين الثقافيين ، العلمانية والدينية ، مع فرصة ضئيلة لتحقيق المصالحة والتكاملبينهما.. نعم ، الحكم الديني الإسلامي ضد العلمانية واضح لا مراء فيه ، وعلى الرغم من الكثير من الجهود المبذولة لإيجاد صيغة جديدة لتلبية الاتجاهات العالمية في العايش.. في الواقع ، هو صراع معرفي خطير ، وليس فقط في مصر ، ولكن في جميع المجتمعات المسلمة..

من المعروف جيدا أن المفاهيم الدينية غالبا ما تحتاج لتفسيرات حديثة لتلبية التطورات الفكرية وظهور الفلسفات.. عند الأئمة التقليديين أفق قصيرة للتعليق على نحو كاف والتحكيم في الأحداث الحية.. لذا ، فإن العديد من الأفراد ذوي الحماسة الدينية ، غير مدربين وغير المصرح لهم بالافتاء ، يغتنمون الفرصة لقيادة الأغلبية الصامتة.. أن الدعوة العامة ساحرة وجذابة دائما للدعاة والخُطاب.. على الرغم من أن معظمهم ليس ضليع في المجامع الدينية ، ولكنهم أكثر حظاً من الآخرين من خلال حفظ الآيات قرآنية وتعاليم الحديث.. بالاضافة ، فان تلك الحالة الفوضوية تؤدي الى خلق بيئة دينية غير رسمية.. لقد كانت المعرفة الدينية السطحية نسبيا ، قد أدت الى اهتزاز أسس المشهد المعرفي العربي.. ولذلك ، فان النخبة العربية فس سعيها للخلاص ، قد حصدت الخلط والاضطراب حول فرص النجاح..!

لقد كان النظام الأبوي المسلم يسمح بالفرص الضيقة للغاية في المشاركة في النقاش لتحديث المعرفة الدينية.. هذا التعنت مباشرة قد خلق الإسلاميين الراديكاليين ، الذين كانوا قد صدموا نمط الحياة المصرية منذ العام 1970..وفي غياب المراجع المتفق عليها بشأن دور الإسلام السياسي ، وإضافة المزيد من الارتباك على كل من الناشطين العلمانيين والمعتدلين ، وتأييد وضع حد لمحاولات دمج الأطر الدينية والعلمانية.. فان الاستنتاج الأخير يروي كيف أصبح النخبة المصرية غير قادرة على تقديم الحلول ، وكما كانت تشارك بالفعل في تشويه الصورة الشعبية ، كانت تمثل معظم من المتهمين والضحايا كذلك..!

The Change Syndrome..

An Egyptian citizen beaten by Police officers prior to Jan 25th;

and another beaten by Army officers 3 months later..!!

"The difference between treason and patriotism is only a matter of dates."

Alexandre Dumas (The Count of Monte Cristo)

A quote to simplify all happenings around..!!

Most of the failed heads (done or ongoing) were named heros at some point of time..

People ususally have short memory; otherwise change (natural or forced) would never happen..!!

I wonder; today's heros, where will they be in tomorrow's events..?

Maturity of political culture and system is about preventing the nations from wasting their own time or committing epistemic suicide on failed controversies.. On the contrary; enable the creditable mechanism to avoid any vacuum of self-discipline and/or mass-order associated with leaderless anarchy; which would simply send the communities into bottomless spirals..

Certainly, the Arabic commons are the victims of the current messy situations.. They had only asked for a bit of justice and freedom, not the bizarre and confusing alleged changes to the regimes..

Throughout history, many atrocities and backlashes were made in the name of the Public.. Maybe they started so, but they ended up with the creation and decoration of new dynasties, powers and millionaires..!!

It is well known and often repeated; of how revolutionary events would turn on itself, beaten its own limps, eaten its own flesh and slaughter its own leaders.. This is where maturity counts.. and lacks..!!

Both alleged dictators and democratic fighters are proven short of capacity to visualize and lead towards the future..

None is credible to receive peoples’ consent to act or to live..

Wrongdoing is equal to ill-vision..

Both are fairly and typically condemned by death..!

Case Study: Arabic Spring..!

Political Change is a natural process; which had successfully brought forward the humane civilizations and brilliance.. No one would claim that change is always peaceful; on the contrary; it is often emotionally violent; yet bloodless..! Changes would turn ugly or bloody when confrontation escalates among the rival groups, in absentia of political leadership or sovereign culture..

The wisdom tells that change is a long term process; which is fueled by enthusiasm, mentored by experience and funded by average wealth.. Rivals would know their parameters in supporting a point of view, and when they have to step down for the majority to dominate.. If such contract is not observed, minority would shake the basis of public confidence and automatically turn change into civil unrest and bloodshed..

Throughout history, it was never a coincidence nor a plan to avoid shaking the civil service.. All radical or moderate events of political change were commonly aware that the civil service is a sacred establishment, which in case of interruption would undermine the entire honorable purpose.. History tells lots of lessons; which are only ignored if the political players are childishly immature or unreasonably arrogant.. I believe this the case across Egypt..!

On parallel; If both media and mass communication are unprepared for such a holy national task; they would lead both elite and commons into emotional chaos.. Differences between news broadcast and news analysis is fine and critical.. Small words of probabilities or exaggerations would dramatically change the course of public actions.. This is the case of Tunisia, Yemen and Egypt too..

Certainly, no nation would proceed ahead without broader agreement on its holistic and patriotic wishes for both present and future.. It is the packages that generations deliver from a precedents to ascendants; nevertheless the sole definition of a nation or a country.. When such taboos are exposed to cultural attack, driven by the newly claimed national interest; the very foundations of change as peaceful natural course of action are biased and malfunction.. This is the case of Sudan, Syria and Libya..

I believe that Arabs should spend more time to understand the political practice and culture in Lebanon and Morocco; while understanding the political landscapes of Jordan, Iraq and Mauritania.. Said that, as how obvious the divide between group of Arabs who have referrals, and who had turned them down..!!

متلازمة التغيير السياسي

قال الكاتب الشهير الكسندر دوماس في روايته الشهيرة الكونت دي مونتي كريستو ، أن الفرق بين الخيانة والوطنية ليس سوى مسألة توقيت

لعل هذا الاقتباس يفسر ببساطة ما يحري من حولنا

معظم الملوك والرؤساء والقادة (سواء فشلوا أم لا) قد تم تسميتهم أبطالاً عند نقطة معينة من مسار الزمن

عادةً ، الناس لديهم ذاكرة قصيرة الآمد ؛ وإلا ، فان التغيير (الطبيعي أو القسري) لن يحدث أبداً

وأتساءل ؛ أين سوف يكون أبطال اليوم ، في أحداث الغد

نضج الثقافة والنظام السياسي تمنع الناس من أن يضيعوا وقتهم أو يرتكبوا الانتحار المعرفي في مواقف الخلاف.. وعلى العكس من ذلك ، تمكن آلية القيادة من الانضباط الذاتي أو الجماعي ، من أجل تجنيب الفوضى ؛ التي يمكن أن ترسل المجتمعات ببساطة الي قعر اللولب الحياتي

بالتأكيد ، الجماهير العربية هم ضحايا أوضاع الفوضى الحالية.. لقد طلبوا فقط القليل من العدالة والحرية ، وليس التغييرات الشاملة والمربكة للأنظمة القائمة

على مر التاريخ ، تم ارتكاب العديد من الفظائع تحت اسم عامة الشعب.. ربما جماهير الشعب قد بدأت المطالبات ، ولكنها انزوت مع إقامة السلطة الجديدة ، وحلفائها من القوى السياسية وأصحاب المال

فمن المعروف جيدا وكثيراً ما يتكرر ، كيف أن الأحداث الثورية قد تنقلب على نفسها ، وتصيب بنفسها أقدامها ، وتذبح قادتها ، وتأكل بنفسها لحمها.. هذا هو مايحدث فيما بين النضج السياسي والافتقار اليه

وثبت أن كل من الحكام المستبدين والمقاتلين الديمقراطيين ذوي قدرة بسيطة على تصور المستقبل

لا يملك أيٍ منهما المصداقية لتمثيل موافقة الشعوب في تخطيط وادارة الحياة

هذه المخالفات تتساوي مع الرؤية الفاشلة للحكم

كلاهما يستحق الموت

دراسة حالة : الربيع العربي

التغيير السياسي هي عملية طبيعية ، والتي أدت الى تألق الحضارات الإنسانية.. لا يمكن لأحد الادعاء بأن التغيير هو دائما سلمي ، بل على العكس ، هو في غالب الأحيان عنيفاً عاطفياً ودموياً

التغيير قد ينقلب قبيحاً عندما تتصاعد المواجهة بين الفصائل المتناحرة ، في غياب القيادة السياسية أو الثقافة السيادية

الحكمة تقول أن التغيير هو عملية طويلة الأجل ؛ ويتغذى من خلال الحماسة وإرشاد ذوي الخبرة وتموله ثروة الطبقة المتوسطة.. المتنافسين السياسيين الناضجين يدركون اطار التعبير عن مواقفهم وكيفية دعم وجهة نظرهم ، ومتى يجب عليهم التنحي مقابل حق الاغلبية في الهيمنة السياسية ، وإذا لم يتم عقد مثل هذه الآلية ، فإن الأقلية سوف تهز أساس ثقة العامة في النظام السياسي ، وتلقائياً سوف يؤدي بدوره إلى الاضطرابات الأهلية وسفك الدماء بين الجماهير

على مر التاريخ ، لم يكن من قبيل المصادفة تجنب زعزعة الخدمة المدنية.. ففي كل الأحداث المتطرفة أو المعتدلة يدرك دعاة التغيير السياسي بأن الخدمة المدنية هي مؤسسة مقدسة لا يحزو المسمس بها ، وان انهيارها من شأنه أن يقوض الغرض السياسي كله

التاريخ يقول الكثير من الدروس ؛ والتي عادةً يتم تجاهلها إذا كانت الأطراف السياسية صبيانية غير ناضجة أو غير معقولة أو متعجرفة ، وأعتقد أن هذا هو الحال في مصر

على التوازي ؛ إذا كانت كل وسائل الإعلام والاتصال الجماهيري غير مستعدة لمثل هذه المهمة الوطنية المقدسة ، فهذا من شأنه أن يؤدي لخلق الفوضى العاطفية بين كل من النخبة والعامة.. فالأخبار والتحليلات الإخبارية التي تبث الخلافات بين ما هو على ما يرام وما هو حرج ، أو بعبارات صغيرة عن الاحتمالات والمبالغات ، سوف تحدث تغييراً هائلاً في بناء ردود أفعال العامة.. هذا هو الحال في تونس واليمن ومصر أيضاً

بالتأكيد ، لن تمضي قدماً أي أمة دون اتفاق واسع حول الشمولية الوطنية في الحاضر والمستقبل.. فمن المؤكد أن الأجيال تستلم تراثها من الأصول إلى اللواحق ، لذلك فإنها التعريف الوحيد للأمة.. وعندما تتعرض هذه الثوابت أو المحرمات الثقافية للهجوم ، من قبيل ادعاء الحداثة المصبوغة بالمصلحة الوطنية ؛ فان الخلل قد يصيب أسس التغيير السلمي والمسار الطبيعي للاداء.. وهذا هو الحال في السودان وسوريا وليبيا

وأعتقد أن العرب يجب أن ينفقوا المزيد من الوقت لفهم الممارسة السياسية والثقافة في لبنان والمغرب ، مع فهم المسارح السياسية في الأردن والعراق وموريتانيا..

إن الفجوة واضحة بين مجموعة العرب الذين لديهم مرجعيات ، والذين كانوا قد انقلبوا عليهم

Do or Die..!!

करो या मरो 

“It's time to do or die now, just like during our struggle for independence," he tells us wagging his finger. Either we succeed in our mission or we make the ultimate sacrifice. The government is trying to fool the people of this country - we will not let that happen.”

Anna Hazare

The global unrest is not limited to 2011, but had started earlier across various countries, and various continents. Two years ago, it had started in Ukraine, France, Argentine, South Africa and Philippines. Lately in this year, it had ignited again in Iran, Greece, Malaysia, eastern province of KSA, Tunisia, Egypt, briefly Jordan, Yemen, briefly Morocco, Bahrain, Nigeria, Chili, Spain, Syria, Israel, UK and India; yet the global media chose a “sexy” banner for this global phenomenon: Arabic Spring..!!

On one hand; “The Global Media Coalition” aimed fiercely to stigmatize the Arabic regimes and elites, which had for long practiced the “Petro-Dollar” arrogance, failed to differentiate between political “Crusade” and religious one, and materialized the “theoretical” clash of civilization with twisted religious and cultural codes. It doesn’t require a mathematician to run the math..!!

On the other hand; “The Controllers of Global Order” had to limit the unrest within the third world, rather than admiting the global nature of its cause roots and symptoms. The efforts made to cover up or paint the political boiling in Southern America, Europe and Far East, were technically magnificent. Simply, they can’t practice the global patriarchy and policing; while confronting “The Gang Culture" in their Front; oops; back yards..!!

Suppression was cleverly used in association with political “foxy” tactics, for the miscarriage of the public euphoria in Morocco, Jordan, KSA, Greece and Nigeria; yet suggest a decade long tension. Some countries are suffering spiral political deterioration and uncertainty, which likely to live for 4-6 years, as badly fuming in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Yemen and Syria. Across the region; a vacuum of leadership is broadly recognized to last for many many years to come..!!

Corruption, Poverty and Unfairness are common motivations for the poor commons to protest; joining hands with an angry jobless, futureless and “cultureless” youth. Details, reactions and severity had varied as per the various indexes. While the majority could not understand "head from tail" of concurrent economic interruptions and financial turmoil across the world, they only had sensed the worse still to come. Then, the wishful dream of tomorrow had blown up, with no meaning to scarify or adapt. Ironically, the agencies for anti corruptions, state policing or social welfare were the main defaulters..!!

People had walked into the streets as nothing else to do: the Dads with empty pockets by the mid of the month, the Mums with skinny or dying kids, the Girls who are subject to harassment in every corner, the boys who are religiously and intellectually abused, the bread earners who can’t confront the inflation anymore, the public officers who can’t report violation of the well-knitted wealthy ones, etc..

I do not knowledgably accept the banner of Arabic Spring.. It is totally wrong, deceiving and misleading.. Yet, my greater concern is the epistemic silence.. Carelessness or Ignorance..?

Some believe in the Aztec prophecy of End of The World in 2012.. I guess it is the end of the world as we used to know, while a birth of another with no clear identity yet.. However, it will be a world with no honor for politicians, scholars or armed ones..

Politics will be as simple as basic needs, while stop any bailing out..

Knowledge will be as simple as laws of Newton, not the luxury of science..

Arms are not ballistics, but simple missiles like stones, pats and Molotov’s..

Welcome back; The Stone Age..!

Israeli Spring..

While the “Change Spring” is reaching Israel.. a unique chance grows for true and solid public synchronization to bring a lasting peace.. Clearly, when they raised the banner: "Walk Like Egyptian"; they did not promote the famous song, but showed no irritation to exchange ideas.. and hands.. They express how the move to change is deep rooted among Israeli youth..!!

Everywhere people are simply “People”; sharing same wishes, pains, fears and psychology.. Politicians survive by the hidden hatred concepts they “intentionally” develop and sustain.. These policies are inevitably based on arrogant interpretation of sort of intellectual distinction; otherwise, there is no need for political parties.. Such hatred is not only between Arabs and Israelis, but within both communities themselves.. The same also happening worldwide.. This is the core of politics..!

It is the coordinates and thresholds of your political identity, when they would turn from logic, rational and peaceful; into hysterical, mythical and violent.. Most of the political hot spots worldwide are described with the same.. Across the Indian subcontinent, along the Caucus mountains, throughout Balkans, around Ethiopian highlands, and certainly the famous Levant.. All extremists share the same stand.. All psychopathic and criminals as well..!!

Due to complex sociopolitical circumstances and facts; I believe the common Israeli is ready to negotiate peace, while the Arabic one is far crippled in myths, taboos and stigmas.. It is a matter of urbanism rather than religious or political..! Many Arabs would disagree with me: measuring the same by their responses.. Despite how distinct and virtual this media is..!

I have a dream of new generations which will cross the barriers of suspicion and confusion.. I know how slim and distant the chance is, same as no one had predicted the Arabic Spring.. Everything is possible and probable.. Let’s build a mechanism to free the minds and hearts.. Then we would enjoy the wonders of our tiny globe.. I know it is coming, not only in the Middle East, but worldwide..!

Assassin the Innocence

Suddenly, a webpage came in Facebook with title and contents in Arabic only.. It is named: Final Episode: Murdering Tom & Jerry..!

The page includes horrifying images for Tom slaughtering Jerry, squashing him by a hammer, or that Dog snatching Tom’s flesh.. All with shocking amount of blood, anger, barbarism and cannibalism..

I’m not sure who post such “Bloody” page; yet I had reported it, knowing that FB administration is both slow and English-speaking..!

Somebody deliberately is targeting Arabic Audience, adding confusion to their “Spring” and killing the laughter of the younger generation..

Someone assassins the innocence, requesting more “Terrorists” to grow, and knowing how Arabs react in absence of logic..

Mercy ya Allah

https://www.facebook.com/search.php?q=jilly.tomm&init=quick&tas=0.23506394889385307&ref=ts#!/jelly.tommmm

Arab Women 2011..

What in the hell happening to Arab women: Rapped by Gaddafi security in Libya, Forced for virginity test in post-Mubarak Egypt, Locked in detention for driving in Saudi Arabia, Shockingly grieve the like-no-other killings in Syria, Notoriously driven for sectarian-divide in Bahrain, while the Niqabis shunt for “freedom” in Yemen.. These are some of the common images for Arabian women in H1/2011.. Certainly the world is amazed on these hilarious experiences..

The Patriarchic Arabian society had lost the traditional veils; which had historically messed up religious codes with the masculine abusive ones.. Not only had the political and military leaderships been proven barren, but also the ones inside dwellings and houses.. Arabian societies had been broken apart when women became “bread earners” with no recognition or appreciation.. The hidden scarifies and unrecognized sweat of house wives and daughters become critical to maintain family survival and wellbeing.. The typical 15% of work force does not interpret the reality of today’s Arabian women, who still in better position than house maids, Bed-mates and/or Secretaries..!

I’m not such believer in the so-called: “Arabic Spring” or “Arabic Awaking”.. What had been experienced since the martyrdom of Bu-Azizi; was and still series of chaotic and irrational reactions after long political depressions, cultural abuses and diverse domestic torture.. This phenomenon had taken place across the Arab world, and traveled across the Mediterranean as well.. However, it is the legitimate delivery of all intellectual tsunamis that turn over all conventional theories of politics, sociology and media since the destruction of Berlin Wall..

When the international media had echoed the happenings among Arab countries; it was not amazed but surprised.. It was not applauding but assessing.. It was not sure, but examining..! All posting since January 2011 were reflecting political confusion and messy calculations.. All protests were breathes rather than agendas.. All scores were Tsunamis that will leave behind wreckages, debris and causalities.. Tsunami never stays; nor brings any goodness..!!

Will Arab Uprising proves to be more than just a great destructive Tsunami..?

Will Arabian women score any goodness by today’s happenings..?

Street Temptation..

By default worldwide, all security agencies would appreciate if people stay at their homes, work places or schools with limited outdoor activities; only to commute or to shop.. The less people are in the streets, the more security is intact, managed and controlled.. This is the simple equation to start with.. While it recommends to get the people off the streets, it never allows for the “Street-Temptation” to turn into a custom for the commons.. Because if they do, they will not go back home.. This was significantly repeated since the French Revolution, in Europe, Asia and lately across the Arab world..

Inevitably, people would like to walk around to socialize or entertain.. Socialization will slowly unify the consensus on all issues of interest.. Persons will exchange ideas, information and news in an easy one-to-one manner.. This would evolve to be a gathering, when a topic would attract more audiences.. While many people lack the capacity to assess the credibility of speakers or weighting what is said, then measuring how right or wrong becomes controversial.. Notably, the public consensus is only build up by continuation and resilience of the advocates.. If the outdoor gathering interprets such mood, then security agencies will start worry..

Once people step down to the streets, with their protest as loud as their fierce demand for change, lots of security appraisals would be reviewed to contain the situation.. This had called the use of violent anti-riot squads in Gdansk, Bangkok or lately in Athens.. Also when protest escalated, it had called the use of ugly armed forces in Budapest, Diyarbakir or lately in Bishkek.. Notably in these cases, there was a commander tries to contain a mutiny, rather than a governor tries to eliminate the opposition.. Between Mutiny and Opposition are the calls to: Replace the governing system not only the government, Denounce the executive powers which spoil the governors, or Question the privileges of sovereignty not the honor of nationalism.. Democracy, Freedom or Diligence are fine-tune clashes’ rather than true public demands.. The commons are always concerned on the basic needs of survival, or the security of such survival, rather than the luxuries of social or political ranking..

Typically and anonymously, the public system would continuously breed renewed leaders and leaderships.. This process is fetal for the humane existence and civilization.. Leaders are usually charismatic, eloquent, or just resilient.. Sometimes their social or professional attributes would present them to the focus.. Leadership is not necessarily associated with logic, nor partner with knowledge, but often reflects simple patriarchic or big-brotherhood syndromes; which subconsciously the street protesters would get lost without.. This is the true description of the current public unrest and unease across the Arab world; where no leaders are available or potentially identified..!!

There is an unfamiliar pragmatic role states that the only way to sustain any endeavor; is to enable the healthy breeding of new rivals.. A person’s life cycle is too short compared with any well-planned philosophy, activity or business.. Suppressing the opposition, masterminding loyalists or any dictatorship form would curse the endeavors with short life.. Without visionary and enlightened leaders, societies would quickly age and turn barren.. Without freshly sustainable leaders; street activities would inevitably lead to chaos..!

Change is never meant as an anti-boredom medication, but a healthy necessity to align processing of livelihood to our interests and wishful-thinking..

The Role of Arab-Intellectuals..

On the question on the Role of Arab-Intellectuals..??
Simply: Forget it..!!

Intellectually: Among the 350 mln Arabs; only couple of millions granted their postgraduate degrees.. Among those, few hundreds who value the research degree as a mandate for progress rather than a tool for personal gains (the wonders of “Dr” abbreviation..!!)
Adding: Failure of civic societies, chronic divide between capitals and other cities (forget about rural..!!), lobbying as backbone of media, corrupted sociopolitics, shallow public culture and many more..

Nevertheless, the Arabic term “Mothaq’af” is unmatched in any language..Either Arabs exaggerate or underestimate the term..!!

Then, no shame to announce the absence of Arabic intellectuality..!!!

Before people get hot and excited; ask any non-Arab first..!
As correctly and wisely quoted in Sudan:
"No camel would realize the curvature of its Neck..!"

During the current Arabic events; since the 14th of Jan 2011, many of the so-called Arab Intellectuals had played low profile, speechless and/or on-a-long-sick-leave; as they discovered having nothing to feed the hungry and angry minds..!! ...

I guess one of the leading Arabic reforms should be: redefining the terms for epistemic use, and the eligibility to research, in order to avoid wasting national dreams and funds on both selfish or barren brains..

Men of History..

One of the last honest respected men, Arabs had once had..!!
Such a statement represents fine art of leadership, integrity and patriotism, which had been proven short among many..

 

 

This was Jamal AbdelNasser, addressing the people after the defeat in the 6-Days war of 1976, announcing his full responsibility and stepping down from office.. I remember hundreds of thousands of the people had stormed Cairo streets at that evening; despite the then-ongoing Israeli air raids on the remaining Egyptian targets around Cairo; urging him to stay in office.. Eventually; he did, yet died after 3 years by heart attack during the negotiations between Jordanian and Palestinian after their bloody clashes in Jordan in Sep 1970..

 

 

The Hair-Dresser..

Arabs need to admit that they exercise great deal of arrogance and priggism in exchange with each other..!! Certainly, they do the same with non-Arabs, which had developed the long lasting frauds with Africans and Asians; particularly the Indians.. Due to both colonization and supremacy, Arabs can’t practice the same with Europeans.. Anyway; I can understand the deep roots of such behavior; which had resulted not only from their position as brokers of the historical traditional salve trading; but also from the twisted interpretation of Quran and Hadeeth counting the privileges of Arab and Arabic culture.. It is a pre-Islamic behavior that was and still stronger than Islam itself.. No Offense..!!

Admitting so, on the contrary of falsely and commonly said of social tolerance and brotherhood; would enable the Arabs to address and correct the seeds of such awful behavior and concepts, rather than cover them up with temporary slogans and justifications.. In the march to build up a steady consistent and sustainable society, a person have to wisely, openly and unashamedly address all local components of social culture, taboos, stigmas and distinctions as well.. The political implications of Royals, Dynasties, Social Ranking had been marginalized since the industrial revolution, which had elevated the value of the steel worker as key element for prosperity.. However, supporters had find many ways to justify privileges for a person against another..

This came to my observation in one recent case of Tunisian powerful lady, Leila Trablsi, wife of Ben Ali, the ousted Tunisian President.. While the banned French book on her biography, had only ashamed her greed for wealth and powers, an article from a famous Arabic TV website had mentioned her early profession as a “hair-dresser” in a manner is well-known for Arabic speakers that is full of disgrace and stigma.. They also mentioned how her father was a street vendor for fruits and vegetables..!! As she is a product from the same culture, she would know what is sarcastically said about her, and certainly she had reacted viciously and ruthlessly in open cycles of actions and reactions..! This how social cracks rapidly grow, spread and deepened..

Absences of social justice and fairness is synonymous to rigid, painful and historical social hierarchy.. On the Humane chronicles, such was the evil of all declines and drawbacks from early equality among hunters to the early privileges among farmers.. Yes, without the social hierarchy, many achievements would never take place, as early divide of work had proven the need to various professions types, pay structures and leaderships among working people.. or among all people.. However, what is praised for the western hemisphere is their early realization, and subsequent implementations, that nature of profession has no privileges in assessing the workers themselves.. Yes, there are socioeconomic implications, yet controllable and set in coherent integration with the rest of the society, as no one is dispensable..!

Now, we can understand that no shame would stamp any type of profession to undertake, as far as delivered with integrity, lawfulness and transparency.. No shame if depression force a graduate to serve as a waiter, or a PhD holder to drive a taxi or a technocrat to farm a plot.. This is also why the term prostitution was replaced with a sex-worker, to meet the consent in certain communities.. This is also why employment restrictions against gender, ethnic groups or religious sects are widely condemned..

Unfortunately, the history of mankind is never written by fairness and equality, but by injustice and aggression..!!

Should we try to change that..??

India & GCC..!

A Confusing Picture.. regardless true or fabricated..!

Dr Nasser Saidi ; Chied Economist at DIFC, posted on Linked-in:
Gulf countries are missing out on US$1 trillion (Dh3.67tn) worth of infrastructure projects in India http://bit.ly/eCcdcL


Dear Dr Saidi..

I do value and follow your picks and notes..
I hope to avoid the unnecessary row..!!

I’m not an economist nor investment professional, yet during the last few years, had closely observed the stakes of GCC (Mubadala & KFH) in Malaysia, had lots of insights on corporate structures (Dubai Properties, Nakheel, Tatweer and Qatari Diar), in addition to the chronicles of the bubble since 1996..

I can say that the culture of investment is different (never win-win), breakdown of products & services is special (Cheap migrant labors, Almost no tax & High consuming trends), and confusing strategies (over supply, over sppecify and over valued) .. Maybe overwhelmed by lots (incompetent decision makers); which raises the said question..

If the world’s top officials are racing for that $1Trillion cake; are there traces of priggism or fierce which drive the frozen actions?

Or just both SWFs and Conglomerates are not efficiently-governed to compete..?

I shall appreciate your reply
Adil

Pouring Cold Water on WikiLeaks...

by Daniel Pipes
National Review Online, December 14, 2010
http://www.meforum.org/pipes/9182/wikileaks-arab-leaders

Of all the WikiLeaks revelations, the most captivating may be learning that several Arab leaders have urged the U.S. government to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. Most notoriously, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia called on Washington to "cut off the head of the snake." According to nearly universal consensus, these statements unmask the real policies of Saudi and other politicians.

But is that necessarily so? There are two reasons for doubts.

First, as Lee Smith astutely notes, the Arabs could merely be telling Americans what they think the latter want to hear: "We know what the Arabs tell diplomats and journalists about Iran," he writes, "but we don't know what they really think about their Persian neighbor." Their appeals could be part of a process of diplomacy, which involves mirroring one's allies' fears and desires as one's own. Thus, when Saudis claim Iranians are their mortal enemies, Americans tend uncritically to accept this commonality of interests; Smith maintains, however, that "the words the Saudis utter to American diplomats are not intended to provide us with a transparent window into royal thinking but to manipulate us into serving the interests of the House of Saud." How do we know they are telling the truth just because we like what they are saying?

Second, how do we judge the discrepancy between what Arab leaders tell Western interlocutors sotto voce and what they roar to their masses? Looking at patterns from the 1930s onwards, I noted in a 1993 survey that whispers matter less than shouts: "Public pronouncements count more than private communications. Neither provides an infallible guide, for politicians lie in both public and private, but the former predict actions better than the latter.

The Arab-Israeli conflict, for example, would have ended long ago if one believes confidences told to Westerners. Take the example of Gamal Abdel Nasser, Egypt's strongman from 1952 to 1970 and arguably the politician who most made Israel into the abiding obsession of Middle Eastern politics.

According to Miles Copeland, a CIA operative who liaised with Abdel Nasser, the latter considered the Palestine issue "unimportant." In public, however, Abdel Nasser relentlessly forwarded an anti-Zionist agenda, riding it to become the most powerful Arab leader of his era. His confidences to Copeland, in other words, proved completely misleading.

The same pattern applied to specifics. He spoke in private to Western diplomats about a readiness to negotiate with Israel; but addressing the world, he rejected the very existence of the Jewish state as well as any compromise with it. After the 1967 war, for example, Abdel Nasser secretly signaled to Americans a willingness to sign a non-belligerency accord with Israel "with all its consequences" while publicly rejecting negotiations and insisting that "That which was taken by force will be regained by force." The public statement, as usual, defined his actual policies.

Not only did Abdel Nasser's shouts offer a far more accurate guide to his actions than his whispers, but he tacitly admitted as much, telling John F. Kennedy that "some Arab politicians were making harsh statements concerning Palestine publicly and then contacting the American government to alleviate their harshness by saying that their statements were meant for local Arab consumption." Thus did Abdel Nasser precisely describe his own behavior.

Contrarily, when speaking privately not to Westerners but to their own, Arab leaders do sometimes reveal the truth. Memorably, the Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat publicly signed the 1993 Oslo Accords recognizing Israel but he expressed his real intentions in private when he appealed to Muslims in a South African mosque "to come and to fight and to start the jihad to liberate Jerusalem."

It's intuitive to privilege the confidential over the overt and the private over the public. However, Middle East politics repeatedly shows that one does better reading press releases and listening to speeches than relying on diplomatic cables. Confidential views may be more heartfelt but, as Dalia Dassa Kaye of the Rand Corporation notes, "what Arab leaders say to U.S. officials and what they might do may not always track." The masses hear policies; high-ranking Westerners hear seduction.

This rule of thumb explains why distant observers often see what nearby diplomats and journalists miss. It also raises doubts about the utility of the WikiLeaks data dump. In the end, it may distract us more than clarify what we know about Arab policies.

Mr. Pipes is director of the Middle East Forum and Taube distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University.